How much car can you afford in Ontario?
Your verdict
15.0% of income
You’re good.
This maximum keeps you at 15.0% of your gross income, the top of the manageable band. Spend less than this and the rest of life breathes easier.
- Easy≤10%
- You10–15%, the band this scenario lands in
- Tight15–20%
- Ouch20%+
What it costs every month
$937/mo all-in
9.64% APR60 months7.29% to 11.99% for your credit
$922 to $953 a month, depending on the insurance quote you actually get
Loan paymentHow we work out the payment
$322
9.64% APR60 months7.29% to 11.99% for your credit
Insurance (Toronto)Where the insurance number comes from
$178 to $209
$283
Maintenance + feesHow we work out maintenance and fees
$139
Insurance is the only line here we estimate rather than calculate, which is why it is the only one shown as a range.
When would you stop owing more than it’s worth?
Underwater 22 months
TodayBreak-even: month 22Month 60
Grey is what you owe; green is what the car is worth. Why does this matter?
Max car budget
What “max car budget” means$13,511
The advertised price to shop with. 13% HST, licensing and running costs are already counted in the monthly plan above.
Mortgage impact
What’s “mortgage impact”?−$53,770
off a future mortgage pre-approval
You’d owe more than the car is worth for the first 22 months, and at the deepest point you’d be $1,781 short. Why?
How we calculated this21 figures, all dated and sourced
Every figure below was read by this scenario while it was being calculated, in the order the calculation read it. Nothing here is decorative: remove one and the number above changes. Assumptions version 2026-08, compiled 2026-08-29.
Verdict thresholds, Manageable maximum income share15%
10 to 15 percent of gross income is realistic for most Canadians.
Federal luxury tax, Threshold CAD$100,000
Applies to vehicles above 100000 dollars, manufactured after 2018, seating 10 or fewer, gross vehicle weight rating at or below 3856 kg, four or more wheels. Confirmed still in force for 2026. Charged before HST, so HST compounds on top of the luxury tax.
Ontario tax, Harmonized sales tax rate13%
Registered dealer sale, new or used. Charged on the negotiated all-in selling price and collected by the dealer at the point of sale.
Fees, Ontario tire stewardship CAD$20 to $30
Charged per vehicle at a dealer. Report 01 section 2.1 gives the band without attributing it to a single URL, so confidence is low. Under OMVIC all-in pricing every other dealer fee, freight, PDI, admin, air tax and green levy, must already sit inside the advertised price.
Licensing, Private sale transfer total CAD$60 to $120
Typical total for a private-sale transfer path, including the UVIP and the plate and permit issuance. Excludes the safety certificate, which report 01 section 2.7 leaves unpriced. Small and honest beats a padded guess here; the dollar impact is minor but the accuracy is a credibility signal.
Licensing, Used vehicle information package CAD$20
Mandatory for private sales. Set fines for failing to provide or deliver a UVIP rose to 140 dollars in January 2026.
Financing, Apr by credit band, Prime5.99% to 9.99%
Credit score 670 to 719. Most dealers and lenders set a mid 600s minimum score for standard approval.
Financing, Used vehicle apr spread1.30% to 2%
Derived, not separately sourced. Low end is blendedAprUsedVehicle low minus blendedAprNewVehicle low, 0.082 minus 0.069. High end is 0.095 minus 0.075. Report 01 section 2.3 states the spread exists and must be modelled but gives no spread figure of its own.
Insurance, By city, Toronto, Annual premium CAD$2,231 a year to $2,400 a year
Sources disagree. Report 01 section 2.6 gives roughly 2400 dollars. Report 03 section 2.4 gives roughly 2231 dollars, citing https://www.ratehub.ca/blog/how-much-is-car-insurance-in-mississauga/ alongside its Brampton companion page. Stored as the wider band spanning both.
Insurance, Ontario year over year increase4.45%
Ontario premiums rose roughly 4.45 percent year over year in 2026. The July 1 2026 reform made most accident benefits other than medical, rehabilitation and attendant care optional, which may lower premiums modestly, but the real movement will not be observable until Q1 2027.
Operating, Average annual kilometres16,000 km a year to 24,000 km a year
Derived proxy, not a measured average. Report 01 publishes no average-annual-kilometres figure anywhere. Section 2.13 gives a typical lease annual km allowance of 16000 to 24000 km per year, which is the only kilometre band in the research, so it stands in as the driving-distance band. A lease allowance is set to cover typical driving rather than to measure it, so this band runs high. Cross-check against report 01 section 2.8's 150 to 250 dollar per month gasoline band, at the same section's 1.70 per litre price: at 16000 km every class consumption figure below lands inside that band, 159 dollars for a sedan to 249 for a pickup, and at the 20000 km midpoint the lighter classes stay inside it while a pickup runs above at 312. That band is not class-specific, so the overrun is expected rather than a contradiction. Source a StatCan or Natural Resources Canada annual vehicle-kilometres figure before any page quotes a driving distance.
Fuel, Ontario regular gasoline per litre$1.70 a litre
Ontario regular gasoline, late August 2026. Ontario averaged roughly 1.84 per litre February to May 2026 and Toronto roughly 1.85 May to August 2026, so treat this as a user-adjustable default. Report 01 section 2.16 asks for a weekly refresh; the cadence vocabulary tightens to weekly when a live price feed replaces the manual figure.
Operating, Fuel consumption litres per 100 km, Suv10 L / 100 km
Modelled, not sourced. Same derivation and same caveat as the sedan figure.
Maintenance, Monthly five to ten years$125 a month to $150 a month
Vehicle 5 to 10 years old.
Depreciation, Year one rate15% to 30%
Sources disagree. Report 01 section 2.10 gives 15 to 25 percent as typical and notes some sources give 20 to 30 percent. Stored as the wider band spanning both. Luxury vehicles and weak-resale nameplates run 25 to 35 percent in year one.
Depreciation, Segment multiplier, Unsegmented1
Fallback for sedans, SUVs, crossovers and minivans. Report 01 section 2.10 publishes no separate five-year figure for those classes, so they track the all-vehicle average until one is sourced. The value is 1 by definition rather than by measurement.
Depreciation, Five year rate all vehicles41.80%
Five-year industry average, improved 3.8 points against 2025. This is the baseline every segment multiplier is measured against.
Lender ratios, Total debt service maximum44%
CMHC maximum. Housing plus all other debt divided by gross income. Car loans and leases count at the full monthly payment, which is what makes the mortgage-impact figure derivable.
Mortgage, Qualifying rate5.25%
Modelled, not sourced. Report 01 section 2.15 supplies the GDS and TDS mechanics and the 100000 dollar income worked example but names no mortgage rate, and no report in docs/research names one. 5.25 percent is the long-standing Canadian minimum qualifying rate floor for the mortgage stress test and is used here only as the annuity rate that converts a monthly payment into a principal amount. It is a stress-test style rate deliberately, because the product's claim is what a lender would qualify the buyer for, not what they would pay. Replace with a sourced OSFI B-20 minimum qualifying rate or a posted lender rate before any page quotes a dollar capacity.
Mortgage, Amortization months300 months
Modelled, not sourced. 25 years is the conventional Canadian mortgage amortization for qualification math. Report 01 publishes no amortization period. Paired with qualifyingRate to set the annuity factor behind the mortgage-capacity figure.
Verdict thresholds, Easy maximum income share10%
Total transportation cost at or below 10 percent of gross income is 20/4/10 compliant. Report 01 section 2.15 is blunt that with total ownership cost near 1373 dollars a month the 10 percent rule is out of reach for all but the wealthiest Canadians, so present it as a guardrail rather than a gate.
Figures marked low confidence are modelled from the research rather than taken from a single source, and each one says what would replace it. Estimates, not advice.
Estimates, not advice. Figures dated 2026-08-29, every source shown. No number here is a quote, an approval, or a substitute for what a lender, an insurer or a dealer will put in writing.